Case Study: Microsoft MSFT Analysis | 03/21/2026

Weekend public post.

$MSFT is the focus, as it was among the first of the MAG7 to front-run the broader tech decline, peaking shortly after the September 2025 FOMC rate cut.

Since 2023, price has now made its fourth contact with the long-term support line (see chart). On a sloped basis, last week effectively erased the excess upside from 2023, culminating in a $380.12 low on Friday (03/20) and a clear breach of that support.

The key question: fake-out underthrow as part of an aggressive Wave C, or a true structural breakdown?

The fractal comparison (zones 3 vs. 4) is telling. The Feb → early April 2025 decline closely mirrors the current structure, beginning from the same seasonal window. Both rectangles align remarkably well. Into Friday’s close and after-hours, MSFT printed a clean double bottom near $380—matching the Feb 24 low with March 20.

If this fractal continues to map forward, then March 20 may correspond to the April 7 “Liberation Day” pivot on last year’s chart. If so, the implication is clear: a durable low may already be in place, not just for MSFT, but potentially for $SPY as well.

From a timing perspective, Friday registered a TD8 buy setup, with TD9 due Monday (how convenient on the first day after the Spring Equinox). A reclaim of the black trendline would serve as confirmation of reversal.

Notably, the undercut below support could prove bullish. Breakdowns often invite late short positioning, especially beneath widely watched levels like the QQQ foundation line. If those positions are now under pressure after hours, the path of least resistance into Monday’s open may be short covering—a potential catalyst for a squeeze on a TD9 signal. I have provided you earlier today with the ladder first target, tomorrow, I will provide you with the higher targets if the ladder top resistance line is broken out of going above water.

Was this on NQ also a bear trap to engineer the Monday rally? See breach of foundation.

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