The ultimate proof that this market has been in compression not distribution comes from the Volatility Compression Pattern (VCP) concept which maps correctly to my thermodynamic engine model.
no, start at oct 29 top, subtract 38 see the bottom there, then from the reflection, measure another 18 down, and from the nov 20 reflection measure 9 down to 682
Teaching point for me...when a connect the highs from oct with the lows the apex looks to be around the 20th on the qqq's. I have found that the market sees highs or lows at these apex points. Get around the same date on the SPY. Are you using the apex of the two lines for your 01/12 target date? If so, how am I charting this incorrectly?
Is there a sector that will outperform others?...You indicated there was some rotation occurring out of tech. Was looking at sectors that have outperformed the market over the last 30 days and rotating my funds out of the pure tech play into these potential rotation targets. After the downdraft.
iwm, value, tech will still be alive, energy but not this month, once stocks go higher and dxy / oil go up together. we need us10y / dxy to go up for oil, which is negative stocks long term.
Please validate: Here are the exact daily swing‑low levels for SPY in the same VCP sequence:
SW2 (prior swing low): $650.85 on Nov 21, 2025 (daily low)
SW3 (last contraction low): $671.20 on Dec 17, 2025 (daily low)
Quick use: pattern integrity holds while price stays above $650.85 (SW2); post‑breakout protection is typically set just below $671.20 (SW3).
no, start at oct 29 top, subtract 38 see the bottom there, then from the reflection, measure another 18 down, and from the nov 20 reflection measure 9 down to 682
Supreme Court tariff decision on Friday
Have you published a target price drop for the 1-day reset/vaxtro?
Teaching point for me...when a connect the highs from oct with the lows the apex looks to be around the 20th on the qqq's. I have found that the market sees highs or lows at these apex points. Get around the same date on the SPY. Are you using the apex of the two lines for your 01/12 target date? If so, how am I charting this incorrectly?
Is there a sector that will outperform others?...You indicated there was some rotation occurring out of tech. Was looking at sectors that have outperformed the market over the last 30 days and rotating my funds out of the pure tech play into these potential rotation targets. After the downdraft.
iwm, value, tech will still be alive, energy but not this month, once stocks go higher and dxy / oil go up together. we need us10y / dxy to go up for oil, which is negative stocks long term.